In a survey of voters “likely to vote” in the 10th Congressional District Special Election conducted by Tulchin Research for the Garamendi for Congress campaign, Democrat John Garamendi is poised to win.
With fewer than 24 days left in the campaign, Lt. Gov. Garamendi currently maintains a double-digit lead over his Democratic competitors among Democratic and “decline to state” voters across all demographic groups. These are the voters who will ultimately determine the Democratic nominee in this safe Democratic seat.
Specifically, the poll found that Garamendi draws a solid third of the vote (31 percent). State Sen. Mark DeSaulnier and State Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan trail by double digits and are fighting it out for second place, with DeSaulnier garnering 21 percent and Buchanan picking up 17 percent. Iraq War veteran Anthony Woods collects 8 percent; Republican David Harmer gets 5 percent and 17 percent of voters are presently undecided.
When voters were given additional information about the candidates, Garamendi’s lead increased significantly, with the other candidates trailing by at least 14 points:
August, 2009 – Horserace Vote
John Garamendi 31 percent
Mark DeSaulnier 21 percent
Joan Buchanan 17 percent
Anthony Woods 8 percent
Undecided 17 percent
August, 2009 – Vote After Information
Garamendi 36 percent
DeSaulnier 22 percent
Buchanan 20 percent
Woods 9 percent
Undecided 8 percent
Garamendi’s lead is built largely on his proven record and reputation on issues critical to these voters: making health care more accessible and affordable; improving public schools; strengthening our economy and protecting our air, land, water and the Delta. Voters reacted very positively when presented with Garamendi’s long record of public service, including his stints as President Clinton’s Deputy Secretary of the Interior, California’s first elected Insurance Commissioner and as the State’s lieutenant governor.
Voters also reacted affirmatively when informed that Garamendi has been endorsed by both President Bill Clinton and Vice President Al Gore.
The survey demonstrates that voters recognize Garamendi is well prepared to be a champion for the people of the 10th district and will bring a level of stature to the Congress that no other candidate in this race can match.
Commenting on the survey, Garamendi said, “We take nothing for granted in our campaign and will continue our grass-roots, door-to-door efforts. There is no substitute for speaking directly with voters, sharing my record and explaining how I will use my experience in state and federal government and the private sector to work with President Obama and Congressional Democrats.
“The district’s voters deserve a representative who has the experience and who therefore is ready from day-one to be a powerful voice to the issues that matter most: creating jobs, finding solutions to our broken health care system, fighting for quality affordable education, and bringing the district its fair share of needed federal stimulus dollars.”
The survey sample was of 400 Democrats and “decline-to-state voters in the 10th Congressional District who are likely to vote in the Sept. 1 special congressional election. The telephone survey was conducted from Aug. 2 to 4 by Tulchin Research, former pollster for Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher, whose resignation to take a position in the Obama administration led to this special election to fill her vacancy.
For more information, visit www.garamendi.org/. Link to Tulchin Research’s CD 10 Poll Memo: www.garamendi.org/sites/default/files/tulchin percent20research percent20cd percent2010 percent20memo.pdf.